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ThearchyHelios
211 lines
12 KiB
Python
211 lines
12 KiB
Python
"""波动基线、趋势（app/analysis/series.py，细案 01 §3、§4）：常规 / 偏离 / 明显偏离、σ̂ = 0、历史不够、本期不完整、缺期、日数据
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lag 7、新高新低；上升 / 下降 / 无趋势、连续期数、缺期。每个用例都顺带核对复算和运行逐字段相同。"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from datetime import date, timedelta
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from fractions import Fraction
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import pytest
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from app.analysis.series import MAD_SCALE, run_length
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from tests.analysis_samples import analyze, call_error, fixed_prober, snap
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SQL = "SELECT DATE(order_date, 'weekday 0', '-6 days') AS week, COUNT(*) AS orders FROM orders GROUP BY 1"
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#: 每周一的日期：最后一周是 2026-10-12（到 10-18，运行当天 10-21 之前已经过完）
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LAST_MONDAY = date(2026, 10, 12)
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def weeks(values, *, last=LAST_MONDAY):
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start = last - timedelta(days=7 * (len(values) - 1))
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return [[(start + timedelta(days=7 * i)).isoformat(), v] for i, v in enumerate(values)]
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def series(rows, sql=SQL, cols=("week", "orders")):
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return snap("Q1", sql, list(cols), rows, types={cols[0]: "text", cols[1]: "number"})
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async def baseline(rows, **params):
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params = {"query": "Q1", "period": "week", "measure": "orders", "label": "订单数", **params}
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return await analyze("baseline", snaps=[series(rows)], **params)
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async def trend(rows, **params):
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params = {"query": "Q1", "period": "week", "measure": "orders", "label": "线上销售额", **params}
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return await analyze("trend", snaps=[series(rows)], **params)
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NOISE = [100, 102, 98, 101, 99, 103, 100, 97, 102, 101, 99, 100, 98, 103, 101, 100, 99, 102, 100]
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# 波动基线
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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async def test_level_basis_with_hand_computed_median_and_mad():
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rows = [[i + 1, v] for i, v in enumerate([10, 12, 11, 13, 9, 10, 12, 11, 16])]
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result = await baseline(rows, basis="level")
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# 历史中位数 11，MAD 1，σ̂ = 1.4826，z = (16 − 11) / 1.4826
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values = result["values"]
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assert values["median"] == "11" and values["n_history"] == "8" and values["rank"] == "1"
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assert Fraction(values["z"]) == pytest.approx(Fraction(5) / MAD_SCALE)
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assert values["band_lo"] == "8.0348" and values["band_hi"] == "13.9652"
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assert result["verdict"] == {"code": "far_outside_band", "subjects": [], "direction": "up"}
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assert result["phrase"].startswith("订单数本期为 16，明显超出过去 8 期的常规波动范围（8.03 至 13.97）")
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assert any(c["code"] == "record_high" for c in result["caveats"])
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assert result["params"]["grain"] == "seq" and result["params"]["lag"] == 1
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assert result["settings"] == {"k_warn": 2.0, "k_alert": 3.0, "min_history": 8, "max_history": 52}
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assert result["table"]["rows"][-1][-1] == "本期"
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async def test_change_basis_within_outside_and_far_outside():
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probe = fixed_prober({("orders", "order_date"): ("2025-01-01", "2026-10-20")})
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within = await analyze("baseline", snaps=[series(weeks(NOISE + [101]))], probe=probe, query="Q1", period="week",
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measure="orders", label="订单数")
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assert within["verdict"]["code"] == "within_band"
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assert within["phrase"].startswith("订单数本期变化 +1.0%，在过去 18 周的常规波动范围内（")
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assert within["params"]["today"] == "2026-10-21" and within["params"]["grain"] == "week"
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assert within["probes"][0]["table"] == "orders" and within["probes"][0]["column"] == "order_date"
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assert not any(c["code"] == "comparability" for c in within["caveats"])
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outside = await analyze("baseline", snaps=[series(weeks(NOISE + [107]))], probe=probe, query="Q1",
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period="week", measure="orders")
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assert outside["verdict"]["code"] == "outside_band" and "超出过去 18 周" in outside["phrase"]
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far = await analyze("baseline", snaps=[series(weeks(NOISE + [70]))], probe=probe, query="Q1", period="week",
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measure="orders", label="订单数")
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assert far["verdict"] == {"code": "far_outside_band", "subjects": [], "direction": "down"}
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assert far["phrase"].startswith("订单数本期变化 -30.0%，明显超出过去 18 周的常规波动范围")
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assert any(c["code"] == "record_low" and c["text"] == "本期的订单数是过去 18 周里最低的" for c in far["caveats"])
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async def test_without_a_table_range_completeness_is_said_to_be_unverified_but_not_in_the_phrase():
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result = await baseline(weeks(NOISE + [101]))
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note = next(c for c in result["caveats"] if c["code"] == "comparability")
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assert note["text"] == "没能核对本期的数据是否到齐（查不到表里这一列的日期范围）"
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assert note["text"] not in result["phrase"]
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async def test_flat_history_has_no_spread():
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rows = [[i + 1, 50] for i in range(10)]
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same = await baseline(rows, basis="level")
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assert same["verdict"]["code"] == "within_band" and same["values"]["z"] is None
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assert same["phrase"] == "订单数本期为 50，和过去 9 期一样（每期都是 50）"
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jump = await baseline(rows[:-1] + [[10, 51]], basis="level")
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assert jump["verdict"] == {"code": "far_outside_band", "subjects": [], "direction": "up"}
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assert jump["phrase"].startswith("订单数本期为 51，明显超出过去 9 期的常规波动范围（每期都是 50）")
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async def test_short_history_partial_target_gaps_and_zero_bases_are_refused():
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short = await baseline(weeks([100, 101, 99, 102, 98, 100]))
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# 6 周：第一周没有上一周可比，本期不算历史，历史的变化只有 4 个
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assert short["reason_code"] == "history_short" and short["reason"] == "只有 4 期历史，至少要 8 期"
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assert short["phrase"] == "波动基线没有做成：只有 4 期历史，至少要 8 期"
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# 最后一周是 10-19 到 10-25：运行当天 10-21 还没过完
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partial = await baseline(weeks(NOISE + [60], last=date(2026, 10, 19)))
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assert partial["reason_code"] == "partial_target"
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assert partial["reason"] == "本期数据只到 2026-10-20，还差 5 天，和完整的周比没有意义"
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# 周过完了，但表里的数据只到 10-17
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probe = fixed_prober({("orders", "order_date"): ("2025-01-01", "2026-10-17")})
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late = await analyze("baseline", snaps=[series(weeks(NOISE + [60]))], probe=probe, query="Q1", period="week",
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measure="orders")
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assert late["reason"] == "本期数据只到 2026-10-17，还差 1 天，和完整的周比没有意义"
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gap_rows = weeks(NOISE + [100, 100])
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del gap_rows[-2] # 本期的上一周没有
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gap = await baseline(gap_rows)
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assert gap["reason_code"] == "target_gap"
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zero = await baseline(weeks(NOISE + [0, 10]))
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assert zero["reason_code"] == "zero_base"
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unreadable = await baseline([["上周", 1], ["本周", 2]])
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assert unreadable["reason_code"] == "period_unreadable" and "上周" in unreadable["reason"]
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async def test_daily_series_compare_with_the_same_weekday_last_week():
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start = date(2026, 7, 1)
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rows = [[(start + timedelta(days=i)).isoformat(), 100 + (i % 7) * 10] for i in range(100)]
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result = await analyze("baseline", snaps=[series(rows, cols=("day", "orders"))], query="Q1", period="day",
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measure="orders", label="订单数", check=True)
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assert result["params"]["grain"] == "day" and result["params"]["lag"] == 7
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# 星期效应：和上周同一天比，每天的变化都是 0
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assert result["values"]["median"] == "0" and result["verdict"]["code"] == "within_band"
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assert result["phrase"].startswith("订单数比上周同一天变化 0.0%，和过去 52 天一样")
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yoy = await baseline(weeks(NOISE * 3), lag=52) # 57 周：能和 52 周前比的历史只有 4 期
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assert yoy["reason_code"] == "history_short" and yoy["reason"] == "只有 4 期历史，至少要 8 期"
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assert (await baseline(weeks(NOISE * 4), lag=52))["status"] == "ok"
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assert (await call_error("baseline", snaps=[series(weeks(NOISE))], query="Q1", period="week", measure="orders",
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lag=0)).code == "bad_lag"
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async def test_duplicate_periods_and_given_targets():
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rows = weeks(NOISE + [101])
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error = await call_error("baseline", snaps=[series(rows + [rows[-1]])], query="Q1", period="week",
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measure="orders")
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assert error.code == "duplicate_rows" and "在 SQL 里按 week 汇总" in error.message
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earlier = await baseline(rows, target=rows[-3][0])
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assert earlier["params"]["target"] == rows[-3][0] and earlier["values"]["n_history"] == "16"
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missing = await call_error("baseline", snaps=[series(rows)], query="Q1", period="week", measure="orders",
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target="2020-01-06")
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assert missing.code == "period_not_found"
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async def test_iso_week_labels_and_months():
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labels = [[f"2026-W{w:02d}", v] for w, v in zip(range(22, 42), NOISE + [101])]
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result = await baseline(labels)
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assert result["params"]["grain"] == "week" and result["verdict"]["code"] == "within_band"
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months = [[f"2025-{m:02d}", 100 + m] for m in range(1, 13)] + [[f"2026-{m:02d}", 112 + m] for m in range(1, 10)]
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monthly = await baseline(months)
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assert monthly["params"]["grain"] == "month" and "过去 19 个月" in monthly["phrase"]
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# 趋势
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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async def test_rising_and_falling_trends_with_run_length():
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rising = await trend(weeks([100 + 3 * i + (i % 3) for i in range(12)]))
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assert rising["verdict"] == {"code": "rising", "subjects": [], "direction": "up"}
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assert rising["values"]["n"] == "12" and rising["values"]["run_length"] == "11"
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assert rising["phrase"].startswith("过去 12 周线上销售额呈上升趋势（每周约 +")
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assert "，已连续 11 周上升" in rising["phrase"]
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assert rising["settings"] == {"trend_min_points": 6, "trend_alpha": 0.05, "max_history": 52}
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falling = await trend(weeks([200, 196, 197, 190, 185, 186, 180, 181, 175, 170]))
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assert falling["verdict"]["code"] == "falling"
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assert falling["values"]["run_length"] == "2" and "已连续" not in falling["phrase"]
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async def test_no_trend_and_exact_small_sample_p():
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flat = await trend(weeks([100, 104, 98, 103, 97, 101, 99, 102]))
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assert flat["verdict"] == {"code": "no_trend", "subjects": [], "direction": None}
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assert flat["phrase"] == "过去 8 周线上销售额没有明显的上升或下降趋势"
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six = await trend(weeks([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]))
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# 没有并列、n ≤ 10：精确分布，单调的 6 期双侧 p = 2 / 6!
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assert Fraction(six["values"]["p"]) == pytest.approx(Fraction(2, 720))
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assert six["verdict"]["code"] == "rising" and six["values"]["slope"] == "1"
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def test_run_length_counts_consecutive_changes_from_the_end():
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assert run_length([Fraction(v) for v in (1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 5)]) == (3, "up")
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assert run_length([Fraction(v) for v in (5, 4, 3)]) == (2, "down")
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assert run_length([Fraction(v) for v in (1, 2, 2)]) == (0, None)
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async def test_trend_needs_enough_consecutive_points():
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rows = weeks([100 + i for i in range(10)])
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del rows[-4] # 最后连着的只有 3 期
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gap = await trend(rows)
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assert gap["reason_code"] == "series_gap" and gap["reason"] == "最后连着的只有 3 期，再往前缺期（至少要连着的 6 期）"
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short = await trend(weeks([1, 2, 3, 4]))
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assert short["reason_code"] == "history_short" and short["reason"] == "只有 4 期，至少要 6 期"
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partial = await trend(weeks([100 + i for i in range(10)], last=date(2026, 10, 19)))
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assert partial["reason_code"] == "partial_target"
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async def test_daily_trends_warn_about_weekday_effects():
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start = date(2026, 8, 1)
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rows = [[(start + timedelta(days=i)).isoformat(), 100 + i] for i in range(30)]
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result = await analyze("trend", snaps=[series(rows, cols=("day", "orders"))], query="Q1", period="day",
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measure="orders")
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assert result["verdict"]["code"] == "rising"
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assert any(c["code"] == "weekday_effect" and c["text"] == "日数据有星期效应，看趋势建议按周汇总"
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for c in result["caveats"])
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assert "日数据有星期效应" in result["phrase"]
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